AIDE D’ÉTAT - ÉTAT MEMBRE — Aide d’État SA.109707 (2024/C) (ex 2024/N) - Mesures

Journal officiel
de l'Union européenne

Série C

C/2025/1389

4.3.2025

AIDE D’ÉTAT - ÉTAT MEMBRE

Aide d’État SA.109707 (2024/C) (ex 2024/N) - Mesures d’aide en faveur de la première centrale nucléaire en Pologne

Invitation à présenter des observations en application de l’article 108, paragraphe 2, du traité sur le fonctionnement de l’Union européenne

(Texte présentant de l’intérêt pour l’EEE)

(C/2025/1389)

Par lettre du 18 décembre 2024, reproduite dans la langue faisant foi dans les pages qui suivent le présent résumé, la Commission a notifié à la Pologne sa décision d’ouvrir la procédure prévue à l’article 108, paragraphe 2, du traité sur le fonctionnement de l’Union européenne à l’égard des mesures d’aide susmentionnées.

Les parties intéressées peuvent présenter leurs observations dans un délai d’un mois à compter de la date de publication du présent résumé et de la lettre qui suit, à l’adresse suivante:

Commission européenne

Direction générale de la concurrence

Greffe des aides d’État

1049 Bruxelles

BELGIQUE

Stateaidgreffe@ec.europa.eu

Ces observations seront communiquées à la Pologne. Le traitement confidentiel de l’identité de la partie intéressée qui présente les observations et/ou d’éléments de ces observations peut être demandé par écrit, en spécifiant les motifs de la demande.

Par l’intermédiaire de son Trésor et d’un organisme spécialisé, la Pologne prévoit de soutenir la première centrale nucléaire du pays sur la base d’un acte juridique spécifique et d’une modification sur mesure d’un acte existant, ce qui lui permettra d’accorder plusieurs mesures d’aide. Ce soutien est composé des éléments suivants:

1.	une injection de fonds propres d’environ 14 milliards d’EUR;

2.	100 % de garanties de l’État (sans aucun frais) pour le financement par l’emprunt d’environ 33 milliards d’EUR;

3.	un contrat d’écart compensatoire bidirectionnel, d’une durée proposée de 60 ans et prévoyant un mécanisme de règlement ex post ainsi qu’une couverture du risque de change.

Le bénéficiaire sera PEJ, une entreprise entièrement détenue par l’État qui mettra en œuvre le projet et sera propriétaire de la centrale nucléaire. En outre, PEJ ou l’une de ses filiales agira en tant que gestionnaire de la centrale et sera responsable de la vente de l’électricité.

Dans sa décision d’ouvrir la procédure, la Commission a conclu à l’existence d’une aide au sens de l’article 107, paragraphe 1, du traité sur le fonctionnement de l’Union européenne (TFUE). En ce qui concerne la compatibilité de la mesure avec l’article 107, paragraphe 3, point c), du TFUE, la Commission conclut également à l’existence d’une défaillance du marché et à la nécessité d’une aide pour le développement d’une activité économique.

Néanmoins, la Commission émet des doutes sur les éléments suivants de l’appréciation de la compatibilité:

—	le caractère approprié et proportionné des trois mesures (fonds propres, garanties de l’État et contrat d’écart compensatoire bidirectionnel);

—	les limitations à la distorsion de concurrence sur le marché (le critère de mise en balance) et la question de savoir si les effets négatifs sur le marché seront réduits au minimum.

TEXTE DE LA LETTRE

The Commission wishes to inform Poland that, having examined the information supplied by your authorities on the measure referred to above, it has decided to initiate the procedure laid down in Article 108(2) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (‘TFEU’).

1. THE PROCEDURE

(1)

Following pre-notification contacts, pursuant to Article 108(3) TFEU, the Polish authorities notified to the Commission on 18 September 2024 their intention to provide support to the construction and operation of the first nuclear power plant (‘NPP’) in Poland, situated in Lubiatowo-Kopalino (the ‘Project’).

(2)

The Commission sent further questions on 16 October, 12 November, and 29 November 2024 to which Poland replied on 24 October, 17 November, and 2 December 2024.

(3)

By letter dated 17 September 2024, the Polish authorities exceptionally agreed to waive their rights deriving from Article 342 TFEU, in conjunction with Article 3 of Regulation 1/1958 (1) and to have this decision adopted and notified in English.

2. DESCRIPTION OF THE CONTEXT

2.1. Electricity generation in Poland

(4)

The Polish electricity market is dominated by coal-fired generation, as shown in Figure 1 below. Coal-powered dispatchable capacities are currently the backbone of Poland’s electricity system, ensuring security of supply to consumers. The Polish authorities highlight that coal-fired power plants account for a significant share of the electricity produced, which far exceeds their share of the installed generation capacity in the Polish electricity system.

Figure 1:

Structure of the installed capacity and electricity generation

Source:

TSO data provided by the Polish authorities

(5)

According to data published by the Polish transmission system operator (‘TSO’) Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. (‘PSE’), the installed capacity of generating units in Poland in 2023 was 67.8 Gigawatt (‘GW’) of which almost half (33.4 GW or 49% of the total capacity) is provided by conventional thermal power plants fired by hard coal and lignite. (2)

(6)

Renewable energy sources (‘RES’) also have a significant share in the installed capacity, accounting for about 40% of that capacity (approximately 27.2 GW). The total generation capacity in the Polish electricity system has steadily increased over the past years (3), driven primarily by the growth of RES, which amounted to nearly 20 GW in the years 2019-2023.

(7)

Most of Poland’s electricity supply comes from conventional units fired by hard coal, lignite and natural gas, accounting for about 124.8 Terawatt hours (‘TWh’) or 76.3% the total production. Renewable sources accounted for about 21.5% of the electricity generated (about 35.2 TWh) (4). The remaining 2.2% of the generation is covered by commercial hydroelectric power plants (about 3.6 TWh). (5)

(8)

The Polish authorities stress that the ratio of installed dispatchable capacity to the overall installed capacity has declined steadily in Poland in recent years. Notably, from 2014 to 2023 this ratio decreased by 20 percentage points from around 70% to 50%. In the view of the Polish authorities, this development creates systemic risks over the mid- and long-term due to a lower capability of always meeting demand and thus to ensure adequate energy security parameters.

(9)

Electricity consumption in Poland in the years 2019-2023 varied between approximately 165 and 175 TWh, with the lowest value recorded for the year 2020 and a slight downward trajectory starting from the highest value in 2021. (6)

(10)

Poland has traditionally been a net exporter of electricity but that changed in 2014 when it became a net importer (7). Its import-export balance has been growing dynamically since then and, in 2020, the total volume of electricity imported reached a historic high of 13.22 TWh covering about 8% of the total demand in Poland (see Figure 2). This trend is reinforced by the increasing costs of coal and the price of allowances under the EU emission trading system (‘EU ETS’) (8), which make electricity generation in coal-fired power plants more expensive compared to imported electricity from neighbouring countries with less emission-intensive generation, except in periods with low generation of electricity by RES throughout the EU.

Figure 2:

Import-export balance values for Poland 1991-2023 based on PSE data

Source:

Polish authorities

(11)

According to the forecasts included in the most recent draft version of the Polish national energy and climate plan (‘NECP’) (9), an increase in demand for electricity, driven by the electrification of various industries including the transport and heating sectors, will occur in the period 2023-2045. The projected electricity demand in 2040 will be 261 TWh in the baseline scenario, representing an increase of about 55% compared to current demand (see Figure 3).

Figure 3:

Historical demand of electricity in the Polish electricity system (dark blue) and demand increase forecasts (light blue)

Source:

Polish authorities

2.2. Expected capacity gap

(12)

The Polish transmission system operator (‘TSO’) Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. (‘PSE’) has conducted analyses of the need to ensure power adequacy and security of supply which justify the integration of the Project in the Polish electricity system.

(13)

The Development Plan for meeting the current and future electricity demand for 2023-2032 (‘Development Plan’) (10), stresses the need to ensure access to dispatchable power to maintain the operational security of the electricity system. The TSO emphasises that the rate of increase in new capacity may not be sufficient to cover the increase in power demand and replace planned-to-be-retired capacity (11).

(14)

The Development Plan explains that, taking into account the current stage of development of technology, it is not possible to ensure capacity needs solely based on RES, which are dependent on weather conditions. Therefore, in order to ensure that supply meets existing and growing demand – especially in the situations of extreme weather conditions or limited availability of electricity that can be imported or increased unavailability of conventional generation sources – it is necessary to have additional resources that will ensure stable operation of the Polish electricity system and guarantee reliable supplies of electricity to end consumers.

(15)

Projections show that electricity generation from dispatchable hard coal and lignite-fired generating units will gradually decline. This is confirmed in all energy-related strategic policy documents of Poland. In the ‘pessimistic scenario’ (12) of PSE, about 11 GW of coal-fired units will be shut down by 2030, and by 2040 the figure will reach more than 19 GW (13). In the near term, therefore, a significant portion of controllable generating units that currently provide security of supply to end users is expected to be shut down.

(16)

Taking into account the available information on the connections of new renewable sources and assuming the deployment of new planned conventional generating units in accordance with the schedules (14), the TSO's projected loss of load expectation (‘LOLE’) indicator, which describes the number of hours per year when there will be a power shortfall in the grid, stands at 1 040 hours in 2030, 2 744 hours in 2033 and 6 441 hours in 2040 (15). This means that for about 75% of the time in 2040, the Polish system will be short on generation capacity.

Figure 4

Additional dispatchable capacity required and LOLE indicator in 2023-2040

Source:

Polish authorities based on TSO data

(17)

The Development Plan indicates that, in the coming years, to achieve the required level of security of energy supply, dispatchable capacity should maintain the security criteria for the operation of the power grid (16). This necessity also stems from the TSO's analysis of the adequacy of generation resources in the Polish electricity system in 2023-2040 included in the Development Plan which shows a substantial need for additional dispatchable capacity up to 10 GW in 2033 and 17.5 GW in 2040.

(18)

Hence, according to forecasts, in the coming years there will be a situation in which the demand for power in the Polish electricity system will increase, while at the same time large, dispatchable generating units will be shut down. Such a situation leads to a power adequacy gap and poses a threat to the continuity of supply, according to the Polish authorities.

(19)

The 2023 edition of the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (‘ERAA’) also indicates some adequacy risks for Poland in the medium term, with LOLE values of 2.5 hours/year in 2030 and 8.5 hours/year in 2033 for the central reference scenario. In a sensitivity scenario, LOLE value estimations for Poland reach 4.4 hours/year in 2030 and 12.3 hours/year in 2033.

(20)

In the view of the Polish authorities, the expected capacity gap underscores the urgent need for additional dispatchable capacity to ensure the safe operation of the Polish electricity system. Such a need was expressed in the Development Plan, in which the TSO explicitly indicated the need to build new, controllable generation sources (17).

(21)

In 2017, Poland introduced a capacity mechanism, approved by the Commission in 2018 (18) for ten delivery years starting with 2021. In the years 2018-2024, 8 main auctions (19), as well as 20 additional auctions (20), were conducted in Poland. The last main auction is planned in 2025 (for delivery year 2030), followed by additional auctions. The Polish authorities submit that therefore there are no measures in place that would support construction of new dispatchable capacities after 2030. In their view, this lack of incentives for investments in dispatchable power is reflected in a significant increase of adequacy risk, expected in the 2030s and 2040s. The Polish authorities currently consider it uncertain whether the capacity market will be prolonged and, if so, under what conditions or modifications. Due to this uncertainty, the capacity market, as it was accepted in 2018, in their view cannot be currently considered as sufficient to address resource adequacy in the long term, especially after 2030, when a significant need for additional dispatchable capacity is still recognised.

Figure 5

Total volume of capacity obligation by year divided into auctions, where obligation has been concluded

Source:

Polish authorities based on TSO data

(22)

The implementation of the Project and further envisaged NPPs in line with the schedule determined in the Polish Nuclear Power Programme (‘PNPP’) is, according to the TSO, one of the measures to keep dispatchable capacity. Completion of the 3.75 GW Project, as planned in the PNPP, will reduce the projected capacity and electricity shortfalls in Poland.

2.3. Objectives and background

(23)

The Polish authorities submit that the Project will contribute to the achievement of the following objectives, considered to be in line with the fundamental aims of the Energy Union (21):

(a)	Energy security;

(b)	Sustainability (decarbonising the economy); and

(c)	Competitiveness (price stability and affordability).

(24)

Overall, they consider the Project to be part of the long-term energy policies of Poland and submit that the Project is of strategic importance for ensuring Poland’s energy security in the coming decades, while contributing to the EU’s energy policy objectives expressed in Article 194 of the TFEU. Namely, the Polish authorities explain that the Project is a fundamental element to decarbonise the energy system while ensuring continuity of energy supply at a competitive and affordable cost to end-users, considering the requirements of safety, and technical standards and environmental sustainability.

(25)

The Polish authorities submit that the large share of coal-fired power generation in Poland's energy mix translates into the power sector's high carbon intensity of about 662 kilogramme CO2/MWh, which is the highest value across all Member States. At the same time, the rising prices of CO2 emission allowances in recent years, coupled with the tightness in the commodity markets, led to increased electricity prices in Poland. They consider that the aging generation assets should be replaced with units that will significantly reduce CO2 emissions without significantly increasing electricity costs to households and the economy thereby implementing the Polish climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In the view of the Polish authorities, NPPs are one of the few sources that provide a stable supply of electricity, without greenhouse gas emissions, at a moderate system-wide cost.

(26)

The Polish authorities explain that the above objectives are consistently reflected across all energy-related government programmes and strategies adopted to date, which notably include:

(a)	the PNPP, initially adopted on 28 January 2014 by the Polish government (22) and updated in 2020 (23);

(b)	the energy policy of Poland until 2040 (‘PEP2040’) (24); and

(c)	the NECP, covering the years 2021-2030.

(27)

The PNPP aims to enhance energy security by diversifying the fuel base in the electricity sector and the geographical origin of primary energy carriers, to replace high-emission baseload generation assets, and to contribute towards mitigating climate change, while providing electricity at competitive and affordable price for end-users. Moreover, the PNPP recognises that investments in nuclear power projects are highly capital intensive, have long lead times, with exceptionally extensive preparatory time before actual investment, and require a uniquely complex and comprehensive risk management strategy. Therefore, the Polish authorities submit that they require State involvement in view of the predominant impact the investment and financing costs have on the final cost of energy produced. Furthermore, the uncertainty of developments on the electricity market in the long term also hampers the realisation of such projects without any State involvement. The PNPP defines actions required to achieve the aims set, such as developing a skilled workforce for the construction and operation of NPPs and energy infrastructure, as well as strengthening nuclear regulatory control. It also outlines the steps for the commissioning of NPPs with a total installed nuclear power capacity of 6 to approximately 9 GWe based on proven, large-scale, Generation III (+) pressurised water reactors.

(28)

The PEP2040 is anchored in the Polish Energy Law (25), which provides the legal basis for adoption of general energy policy. The document sets the framework for the energy transition in Poland and includes in-depth assessments of the current situation in the electricity sector, strategic State-level priorities as well as modelling and forecasts of energy supply and demand. The PEP2040 includes eight strategic objectives covering the entire energy supply chain, from obtaining raw materials, through energy production and supply, to the method of its use and sale. PEP2040’s fifth strategic objective provides for ‘implementation of nuclear power’ through the commissioning of a first nuclear unit by 2033 with a capacity of 1-1.6 GW, followed by subsequent units every 2-3 years. The document refers to, among other things, the Project’s site and delivery dates in correlation with the need to replace existing (mainly coal-fired) dispatchable generating units, as well as to reduce national emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants.

(29)

The NECP emphasises an urgent need to implement nuclear power, including the Project, to ensure a sustained energy security. Furthermore, it states that the implementation of the Project will be one of the primary measures aimed at the decarbonisation of the electricity sector. The importance of the timely deployment of NPPs is also emphasised in the draft updated NECP that is being finalised. Nuclear power, and specifically the NPP, are expected to play a crucial role in ensuring power generation, as well as enabling the decarbonisation of the electricity sector in Poland.

2.4. Alternative options for securing a low carbon energy mix

2.4.1. Impact of the Project on the reduction of system-wide costs

(30)

The Polish authorities submit that the TSO’s actions are technology-neutral and its role is to ensure an adequate level of security of electricity supply, regardless of the technology that will provide such a level. At the same time, from the perspective of the State, it is reasonable that the security of supply is ensured in a cost-optimum way for citizens, as well as for the economy. Poland therefore stressed that, when making investment decisions related to ensuring a reliable supply of electricity, the socio-economic calculations should duly be considered taking into account all costs generated, including system-wide costs (26) and environmental costs. In their view, system-wide costs increase with the growing share of weather-dependent sources in electricity generation, significantly increasing the total cost of electricity (27).

(31)

Such costs were included in an analysis of alternative scenarios for ensuring continuity of electricity supply while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions, prepared by the National Center for Energy Analysis (‘NCAE Analysis’) (28). The Polish authorities submit that the NCAE Analysis has clearly shown that under all scenarios the use of nuclear power is the least costly way to provide the Polish electricity system with 6 GW of continuously available dispatchable capacity throughout a 30-year period, also in the variant assuming net-zero CO2 emissions.

Figure 6

Comparative analysis of the costs of ensuring stable and reliable electricity supply by nuclear technologies and RES sources

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CELEX	52025AS109707
Type	Avis institutionnel
Date	mardi 4 mars 2025

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